Eric Kashambuzi

In my article on the interview given by the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, I observed that the interview covered the full half of the glass. I reasoned that in order to give readers a balanced and informed picture, it was necessary to look at the empty half of the glass as well.

In his budget speech on June 12, 2008, the Minister of Finance covered the full half of the glass when he reported on the achievements of 2007/8 financial year. In this article, I am examining the empty half of the glass namely the social and environmental aspects that were not covered in the speech.

The Minister informed the nation that the economy grew at a rate of 8.9 percent in real terms considerably higher than the projected 6.5 percent. One would have expected the Minister to tell the audience and the nation that the commendable growth rate improved the living conditions of Ugandans in rural and urban areas. He was not able to do that presumably because poverty in Uganda increased by one million souls during the reporting period. The unemployment especially of young men and women graduates has continued to increase in spite of an economic growth rate averaging over six percent over the last twenty years. Therefore, while economic growth is necessary, it is not a sufficient condition for transforming people’s lives from wretchedness to riches. The public should therefore demand that in his next budget speech the Minister present information on the linkage between economic growth and social welfare.

To monitor developments in the social sectors, the government should establish the equivalent of the Presidential Investors Roundtable. This arrangement would enable the President to conduct consultations with all relevant stakeholders on a regular basis and make adjustments as appropriate. It is important to recognize that transforming Uganda into a modern economy and middle class society will be very difficult if not impossible in the absence of massive investments in human capital especially through education and healthcare. Uganda needs a healthy cadre of doctors, engineers, teachers, nurses, computer specialists and managers etc fit for the 21^st competitive global economy. India’s booming economy is largely based on its first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s vision of establishing technological institutes modeled on London Imperial College and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the United States. Therefore investing in higher education should take place alongside investments in primary and secondary education as well as preventive and curative healthcare.

The Minister of Finance stressed the vital role played by the export sector in the remarkable growth rate of the economy during the 2007/8 financial year. However, he did not report that in order to earn increased foreign exchange from primary commodities including foodstuffs, more land was brought under cultivation resulting in massive de-vegetation and the consequent adverse hydrological and thermal changes. Consequently, Uganda is increasingly experiencing longer and hotter dry seasons, falling water tables, disappearing rivers and shrinking lakes and the development of desert conditions as well as irregular rainfall in amount, timing and duration.

The Minister also did not mention how an increase in the export of food stuffs to neighboring countries and beyond is impacting on the food security of Ugandans especially children. The high level of infants born with low birth weight signifies that their mothers are malnourished and the levels of stunted and underweight reported by UNICEF in its 2008 report are unacceptably high reflecting in large part the impact of Uganda’s export policy of foodstuffs. It does not make sense to encourage farmers to grow food for cash rather than for the stomach only to end up spending the earned cash on medical bills to treat malnutrition-related diseases.

Ugandans and their development partners need to monitor closely developments in the social sector in the 2008/9 financial year and beyond to ensure sustainable economic growth and equitable distribution to all social groups and regions.