ERIC KASHAMBUZI

In any country, population increases when the birth rate exceeds the death rate (natural increase) and in-migrants exceed out-migrants (net migration). Population decreases when the death rate exceeds the birth rate and out-migrants exceed in-migrants. When population is growing very fast as in Sub-Saharan Africa the expression “population explosion” is used. When population is declining very fast as in developed countries the expression “population implosion” is used.  The two figures below taken from David Yaukey et al (2007 ) show birth, death, natural increase, net migration and growth rates of the United States between 1910 and 2010.  In countries with accurate, disaggregated and up to-date statistics it is easy to determine the relative contribution of natural increase and net migration to total population growth.

Uganda’s total population growth at around 3 per cent per annum is the result of excess births over deaths and excess in-migrants over out-migrants.  Because of poor and non-disaggregated demographic data, it is difficult to determine the relative contribution of natural increase and net migration to Uganda’s total population increase.

What is clear is that Uganda has been a recipient of economic, political and illegal immigrants since the early 1920s. A combination of economic pull factors in Uganda and push factors especially in Burundi and Rwanda and to a lesser extent Kenya and Tanganyika attracted many workers. Hutus worked and many settled in cotton and coffee growing areas in Buganda. Tutsi worked and some settled in cattle herding areas in Ankole, Buganda, Lango and Teso etc. These male workers came alone. Those who stayed permanently either married local women or brought spouses from their country of origin.

Political instability in the neighboring countries of Rwanda, DR Congo and Sudan in the 1950s and 1960s saw many refugees flock into Uganda. Unlike economic immigrants, these refugees or political immigrants came with their families and livestock. For example, in 1963 there were 33,000 Tutsi refugees with 15,000 head of cattle in Uganda. The pressure on the carrying capacity of pastures made worse by drought forced many Tutsi refugees and Bahima in Ankole to migrate with their cattle into many parts of western Uganda and Buganda causing tensions with indigenous populations over pasture, water supply and crops destroyed by cattle.

The political conflicts in Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia have resulted in many people fleeing to Uganda. They are found in rural and urban areas. Illegal immigrants and legal workers have also come to Uganda in quite substantial numbers. The rising number of land disputes throughout the country is a clear testimony that there is land shortage contrary to President Museveni’s claim that Uganda has a lot of idle land, meaning that more immigrants can come in or Ugandans can produce more children. Two points need to be highlighted here. First, immigrants since the 1920s have become an integral part of Uganda’s demographic dynamics and must be taken into consideration in policy formulation. Second, land scarcity is already a reality in all parts of Uganda. Against this background, new settlers will make matters worse.

On October 18, 2010 a representative of the East African Community addressed the United Nations in New York at the joint invitation of the Office of the Permanent Observer of the African Union to the United Nations and United Nations Office of Special Adviser on Africa. One of the key messages conveyed was the unimpeded mobility and settlement of members of the East African Community in any member state. Given that Rwanda, Burundi and Kenya suffer from extreme land scarcity, Uganda and Tanzania are going to attract many settlers. Ugandans and Tanzanians will not move to countries areas already overcrowded.  Is the goal of free mobility to ease population pressure in Kenya, Burundi and Rwanda? What will Uganda and Tanzania get in return? Before a country enters into an agreement of this kind it must determine what it gains and losses and the net difference. If the difference is negative then there is no deal. At all times the public must be advised of developments and facilitated to make comments. The European Union that has many years of experience in integration matters is still grappling with movement of people. France and Germany are right now (2010) experiencing serious immigration challenges. What makes East Africa immigration so smooth to allow unimpeded human and possibly animal mobility in any part of the community?  What are the net benefits of having a borderless East African federation?  How will the rules of WTO conflict with the benefits of regional trade?

What is almost certain especially should the government of Uganda force indigenous people to practice birth control and set targets while allowing settles from other members of the community to enter Uganda as they like, immigrants will soon outnumber indigenous Ugandans. This prospect raises questions. What will Uganda gain as a result of economic and political integration?  Already since the common market became operational some Ugandans are complaining. It must be stressed that governments all over the world exist to protect the interests of their citizens first and foremost. When they fail to do that they should be removed.

The NRM government must clearly spell out in clear and simple language for all Ugandans (not their so-called representatives) to understand what it is that they will gain and what it is that they will lose. Land is the only asset and source of livelihood that Ugandans have. With education quality going down the drain and prospects of getting non-agricultural jobs fading, the only asset is land. Ipso facto, Uganda people and especially their leaders must not compromise on land. Some countries are eager because they want access to land. What will they give in return?

Once indigenous Ugandans are outnumbered by immigrants the game will be over. Do you know what triggered the devastating civil war in Cote d’Ivoire and who is fighting whom? Ugandans you are being warned of what not to do – do not let land slip out of your hands because you won’t get it back again. You will be pushed out of your country! The incorporation of large swathes of rural land into municipality (now called rural urban to confuse non-technical people) without consulting households concerned as in Rukungiri municipality has raised a lot of questions about the hidden motive. With all of the above in mind, everything must be done to protect the interests of politically and economically powerless and voiceless citizens of Uganda.